Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of CPI of Bangladesh
Author:
S. M. Abu Saeed, Md. Sabuj Ali, Mst. Dilara Pervin, Md. Ziaul Hassan
Abstract
Time series data is very important in the case of financial development of any economy. But it is very difficult to deal with time series data. This study is consists of time series modeling and forecasting of some economic variables of Bangladesh. For this study we have considered CPI as selected economic variables of Bangladesh. The variable was collected from the “Monthly Economic Trends” published by the Bangladesh Bank. For modeling purpose we have used Box-Jenkins Methodology which is very popularly known in the sector of time series modeling. On the study at first we have checked the stationarity. For checking stationarity we have used both graphical method and Dickey Fuller test. Then to find the appropriate model for CPI we have used the ACF, PACF curves. After finding the appropriate models we have performed the diagnostic checking for each of the fitted model, which was good. Then by using the best fitted model we have find some forecasted values for each of the variables.
Key words: Stationarity, Box-Jenkins Methodology, Dickey Fuller test, ACF, PACF, ARIMA model.
| Title: | Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of CPI of Bangladesh |
|---|---|
| Authors: | S. M. Abu Saeed, Md. Sabuj Ali, Mst. Dilara Pervin, Md. Ziaul Hassan |
| Journal Name: | International Journal of Science and Business |
| Website: | ijsab.com |
| ISSN: | ISSN 2520-4750 (Online), ISSN 2521-3040 (Print) |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1407688 |
| Media: | Online and Print |
| Volume: | 2 |
| Issue: | 4 |
| Acceptance Date: | 02/09/2018 |
| Date of Publication: | 02/09/2018 |
| PDF URL: | https://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/271.pdf |
| Free download: | Available |
| Page: | 530-537 |
| First Page: | 530 |
| Last Page: | 537 |
Cite This Article:
Saeed, S. M. A., Ali, M. S., Pervin, M. D., & Hassan, M. Z. (2018). Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of CPI of Bangladesh . International Journal of Science and Business, 2(4), 530-537. doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1407688
Retrieved from https://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/271. pdf
About Authors
S. M. Abu Saeed, (Corresponding Author) Lecturer, Department of Statistics, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University (HSTU), Dinajpur, Bangladesh.
Md. Sabuj Ali, Lecturer, Department of Statistics, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University (HSTU), Dinajpur, Bangladesh.
Mst. Dilara Pervin, Lecturer, Department of Statistics, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University (HSTU), Dinajpur, Bangladesh.
Md. Ziaul Hassan, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University (HSTU), Dinajpur, Bangladesh.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1407688